The Milwaukee Bucks and Orlando Magic take the floor in Game 4 of their best-of-seven 2020 NBA Playoffs series on Monday. After a series-opening victory for the Magic, the Bucks have dominated in back-to-back games, reasserting control. Orlando will be without Jonathan Isaac (knee), Mo Bamba (post-COVID) and Michael-Carter Williams (foot) in Game 4. Aaron Gordon (hamstring) and Melvin Frazier (back) are questionable to play.
Tip-off is at 1:30 p.m. ET in Orlando. William Hill lists the Bucks as 13.5-point favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points expected, is 225 in the latest Bucks vs. Magic odds. Before making any Magic vs. Bucks picks, see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned well over $4,700 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 58-32 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,300 on those picks alone. Amazingly, it hasn’t missed a single top-rated pick (5-0) since the NBA’s restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Bucks vs. Magic spread: Bucks -13.5
- Bucks vs. Magic over-under: 225 points
- Bucks vs. Magic money line: Bucks -1300, Magic +800
- MIL: Bucks are 5-6 against the spread in their last 11 games
- ORL: Magic are 5-6 against the spread in their last 11 games
Why the Bucks can cover
After a hiccup in Game 1, the Bucks have been thoroughly dominant on both ends of the floor. Milwaukee has scored more than 1.11 points per possession over the last two games and, on the other end of the floor, the Bucks have suffocated the Magic by allowing fewer than 0.97 points per possession. That mirrors the performance of Mike Budenholzer’s team this season, with the best defense in the NBA and an elite offense on the other side.
Milwaukee leans heavily on an analytically-friendly system, but the Bucks also have an impressive roster headlined by arguably the game’s best player, Giannis Antetokounmpo. Against a Magic team with roster concerns, the Bucks should be in a favorable position to take further control of the series in Game 4.
Why the Magic can cover
The Magic are giving up a considerable amount in roster talent, but Orlando is attempting to bridge the gap with scheme. Steve Clifford’s team is very strong on the defensive glass, and Orlando’s defensive approach produces quality results in contesting shots near the rim. The Magic also create turnovers and keep opponents off the free-throw line, both of which are areas the Bucks are closer to average than elite.
Offensively, Orlando has enjoyed success in this matchup with a strong assist rate and a more-than-acceptable 55.8 percent true shooting. The Magic also know this is an important game in attempting to spark a comeback in the series, with the Bucks knowing they have a larger margin for error overall.
How to make Bucks vs. Magic picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with Khris Middleton and Evan Fournier projected to fall short of their season-long scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only get the pick here.
So who wins Magic vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bucks vs. Magic spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $4,700 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.
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